Election 2024: By the Numbers

Election 2024 by the numbers is unpredictable. Because the numbers are inexact. Additionally, they are subject to manipulation, i.e. skulduggery. Let’s get into it.

Since 2004

I’ve been analyzing, and writing about, voter behavior in US presidential elections’. My first novel, Attachment: A Novel of War and Peace (2006) was concerned with, among other things, the then critical election about war and peace in the Middle East. Specifically – should the US invade Iraq and depose Saddam Hussein because … . Well, that was unclear and up for debate.

Here’s a figure regarding my analysis of the US voting population (pg. 81) in 2004.

Twenty years later, what has changed? The numbers! There are a lot more of each block except “Rural whites”. Since 2004, the population has increased by about fifty million people. Most of whom are immigrants and POC (people of color). And also tend to live in urban centers (large cities). That’s a lot of voters, and they tend to vote Left, or Democratic.

We (those of us who analyze these things) have gotten much more sophisticated since 2004. Because of technological advancement. However, in general, people don’t change. Meaning we will use all manner of skulduggery to get what we want. Which, also, hasn’t changed. [I look at all of that in my book, Election 2016.]

This time

in 2024, I suggest there are sixteen important voting blocks. Partly because of the Democrats’ candidate, Kamala Harris. She is an obvious POC, and woman. Moreover, her advisors want to take advantage of that. (Albeit subterraneanly.) Whilst playing on “Educated Whites” sensitivities. In other words, guilt and the need for ego support. Said another way, to feel good about themselves. With regard to their socioeconomic standing (At the top.) Furthermore, everyone needs a villain, an enemy. In this case, Donald Trump and his MAGA base, “Rural whites”.

The Sixteen voting blocks

breakdown like this, clockwise:

Upper left quadrant of figure 1

1. Rich, young, male, POC
2. Rich, old, male, POC
3. Poor, young, male, POC
4. Poor, old, male, POC

Upper right quadrant

1. Rich, young, male, Whites
2. Rich, old, male, Whites
3. Poor, young, male, Whites
4. Poor, old, male, Whites

Lower left quadrant

1. Rich, young, female, POC
2. Rich, old, female, POC
3. Poor, young, female, POC
4. Poor, old, female, POC

Lower right quadrant

1. Rich, young, female, Whites
2. Rich, old, female, Whites
3. Poor, young, female, Whites
4. Poor, old, female, Whites

Because of the sophistication of the current technology – these voting blocks can be specifically targeted. Targeted with media and personal outreach. However, due to the proclivity of people to be unknown, to themselves as well as others, no accurate prediction of how individuals will actually vote can be known. Additionally, if any individual will vote.

Therefore: Election 2024 by the numbers is unpredictable.

My Analysis

or reasonable, independent thinking is shown in figure 1. Which shows why my answer as to who will win? Trump or Harris, is: Who knows?

I made assumptions based on “what has been”. Furthermore, on my analysis of “undecided” voters who have spoken out on Mark Halperin’s 2Way platform. Additionally, on 50+ years of studying human behavior and psychology.

If 65% of registered voters vote, I see the breakdown as I’ve shown. When I boil it down, I see Harris winning the popular vote by six million. Likely, however, Trump will win the electoral vote tally.

In conclusion

I could be way off, because Election 2024 by the numbers is unpredictable. However, numbers is all we’ve got.

I agree with Mr. Halperin when he says: Be prepared for your candidate to lose. Moreover, keep your head on tight, and don’t over-react. My psych-girl said, “Election anxiety is real.” Nevertheless, somehow, I think we (humans) will survive.

Keep your head up, take care of yourself, and happy holidays.

Cheers.